Connecting New Zealand – Big issues for transport systems in the future

The projected growth in both freight and population in Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga over the coming decades will drive changes, over time, in how and where the government invests in the transport system.

A number of global trends and issues will drive changes and developments in new technologies; shifts in vehicle use, patterns of personal mobility, aviation use and shipping. Some of these global trends and issues are outlined below.

Population growth — the world’s population is expected to grow from seven billion in 2010 to nine billion in 2040, with 64 percent of the world living in urban areas by that time.

Ageing population — the proportion of the world’s population aged 60 and over is expected to double between 2007 and 2050. The number of 60-year-olds and over is expected to reach two billion by 2050. This has significant implications for future transport needs, safety and the transport workforce.

Global freight growth — global freight movements are expected to grow by 350 percent by 2050.

Fuel prices and volatility — fuel prices are expected to rise  with continued volatility, and this will impact on demand for transport and for new fuel technologies.

Transport emissions — the transport sector will likely need to respond to future demands to reduce transport greenhouse gas emissions.

Security — how transport security can be enhanced to provide the optimum protection for an uncertain world, having regard to cost and the threat environment.

New technology — how transport systems can adapt quickly to take advantage of new technologies to address many of the key issues facing the transport sector, including new fuel sources, safety and security.

New Zealand will benefit from some of these global trends, such as population growth leading to greater demand for our agricultural products. However, we will need to mitigate the negative impacts that other trends, such as increased costs driven by international emissions or security policy, could have on our trade. To achieve these mitigations we need effective international relations. We need to work cooperatively with other like-minded countries and have a strong voice in international transport forums, such as the International Maritime Organization and the International Civil Aviation Organization, that set the international rules for transport.

Population growth, the ageing population, and increased demand for freight are already recognised as being significant issues in New Zealand (Figures 7 to 10).

By 2021 New Zealand’s population is expected to grow by 300,000, and to a total population of 5.1 million in 2031. At the same time the population will be getting older, with the percentage of people over 65 years of age growing from 13 percent of the population in 2009 to 21 percent in 2031, totalling more than 1 million people at that time.

Auckland is expected to have the strongest population growth (almost 600,000 by 2031), while some other parts of the country will have little or no growth (Figures 8 and 9).

Together, the Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga golden triangle will likely be home to 53 percent of the population in 2031, while Canterbury is predicted to have one of the oldest age profiles in the country. The freight task will grow significantly in Auckland, the Waikato and the Bay of Plenty (Figure 10). The extent to which the Canterbury earthquakes will impact on population changes and the future freight task is unknown, and we are likely to encounter other changes that we cannot foresee.

New Zealand’s response to these issues is likely to be through a range of smaller, incremental changes over time rather than through disruptive major policy or service changes that create economic loss. However, the cumulative effect of these responses is likely to result in a significant evolution in where and how the government invests in the transport system.

Other developments are also likely to impact, over time, on some transport trips and the demands that we place on the transport system. This includes the government’s investment in ultra-fast broadband over the next decade which will enable much greater social connectivity for rural and urban communities online.

The government will work with the transport sector over the next decade to support the transport system in adapting to its changing environment and to meet the changing needs of transport users.




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