Appendix C - The New Zealand Transport Strategy

RATIONALE FOR TRANSPORT TARGETS

The following sets out the rationale for the transport targets:

HALVE PER CAPITA GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM DOMESTIC TRANSPORT BY 204072

• Greenhouse gas emissions from transport increased by 64 percent in the period 1990-2006 and currently make up 18 percent of New Zealand’s total emissions.
• This target was set in the New Zealand Energy Strategy 2007 (NZES), as part of New Zealand’s wider response to climate change. An extensive body of work has established how this will be achieved. The target equates to a reduction of 60 percent in predicted levels of per capita transport emissions in 2040 because, without action, emissions per capita are likely to increase in the future. The implementation pathway adopts an interim milestone of a 23 percent reduction in per capita emissions from transport by 2020. Section 4.1 sets out the contributions to these targets that will be made respectively by modal shift, technology and fuel changes within heavy and light vehicle fleets. The adoption of this pathway has come from discussion with the transport industry on likely timescales for development and uptake of new technologies, modelling of transport patterns in major urban areas and the expectations for modal shift in existing RLTSs. It is also based on other targets (eg public transport mode share) being achieved.

INCREASE COASTAL SHIPPING’S SHARE OF INTER-REGIONAL FREIGHT TO 30 PERCENT OF TONNE- KILOMETRES BY 2040

• Coastal shipping currently represents 15 percent of inter-regional freight tonne-kilometres.
• The target is based on a series of factors including reasonable assumptions about the capacity of freight that could be moved, trends in international shipping, comparative costs with other modes and estimated growth in the total freight task (estimated to more than double by 2040). The National Freight Study and Understanding Transport Costs and Charges Study, both currently underway, will provide further information that will allow this target to be refined in the future if necessary.

INCREASE RAIL’S SHARE OF FREIGHT TO 25 PERCENT OF TONNE-KILOMETRES BY 2040

• Rail currently represents 18 percent of freight tonne-kilometres.
• The target is based (as for the sea freight target above) on reasonable assumptions about the capacity of freight that could be moved, comparative costs with other modes and estimated growth in the total freight task. As with sea freight, the National Freight Study and Understanding Transport Costs and Charges Study will provide further information that will allow this target to be refined in the future if necessary.
• Rail already transports some intra-regional freight and this will need to continue in the future for both the rail and sea freight targets to be achieved.

BECOME ONE OF THE FIRST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD TO WIDELY USE ELECTRIC VEHICLES

• This target was set in the NZES. Its rationale is based on the fact that the NZES also adopts a target that by 2025, 90 percent of electricity will come from renewable resources. This makes electric vehicles a logical choice in a low carbon transport future, provided the technology becomes available at an affordable price and the relevant distribution and charging infrastructure is available.  

REDUCE THE KILOMETRES TRAVELLED BY SINGLE OCCUPANCY VEHICLES, IN MAJOR URBAN AREAS ON WEEKDAYS, BY TEN PERCENT PER CAPITA BY 2015 COMPARED TO 2007

• The predominant users of roads, accounting for about 80 percent of road traffic, are people in cars. About 90 percent of people travelling to work in cars do so alone.
• This target was set in the NZES. It has come from international comparisons of transport objectives and achievements. A per capita measure decouples the target from changes in population.  

REDUCE THE RATED CO2 EMISSIONS PER KILOMETRE OF COMBINED AVERAGE NEW AND USED VEHICLES ENTERING THE LIGHT VEHICLE FLEET TO 170 GRAMS CO2 PER KILOMETRE BY 2015, WITH A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION IN AVERAGE FUEL USED PER KILOMETRE

• Currently around 18% of new vehicles entering the fleet achieves 170g/km rated CO₂ emissions.
• This target was based on analysis of vehicle standards globally. It positions New Zealand mid-way between Australia and the European Union. The Australian voluntary target for 2010 is an average of 222g/km and the European voluntary target 140g/km by 2008 (although European manufacturers are not expected to achieve this and the European Commission has proposed a mandatory target of 120g/km for 2012).  

INCREASE THE AREA OF CROWN TRANSPORT LAND COVERED WITH INDIGENOUS VEGETATION

• The discussion paper Sustainable Transport suggested a target of ‘no net loss’ of indigenous vegetation. Stakeholder feedback suggested this was not ambitious enough, as this would normally be a requirement through the RMA process. The confirmed target recognises that there is potential to increase the area of indigenous vegetation on Crown transport land. However, it is not expressed as a number, pending evaluation of the opportunities and costs over the next two years.  

FOR IDENTIFIED CRITICAL ROUTES, IMPROVE RELIABILITY OF JOURNEY TIMES

• Baseline information on journey time reliability is weak and not consistent between different major urban areas. However, stakeholder feedback indicated the importance of reliability and the need for a target. The economic benefits are most important on critical routes and this is reflected in the target. The definition of these routes has yet to be undertaken and is an immediate priority for action within this Strategy (to be undertaken collaboratively between central and local government). Once this process is complete, and baseline monitoring of journey time reliability on these routes has been undertaken, targets will be set and included in the next update of the Strategy in 2010.  

FOR IDENTIFIED CRITICAL ROUTES, REDUCE AVERAGE JOURNEY TIMES

• The same rationale applies to average journey times as to journey time reliability above.  

REDUCE ROAD DEATHS TO NO MORE THAN 200 PER ANNUM BY 2040

• Road deaths have declined steadily since the late 1980s. However, in recent years the decline in the number of deaths from road crashes appears to be slowing. The road toll in 2007 was 423.
• This target is based on the current world-best road safety rates. A road toll of 200 deaths per year represents 4.5 per 100,000 people, a similar level to the 4.6 per 100,000 people currently achieved in the Netherlands.  

REDUCE SERIOUS INJURIES ON ROADS TO NO MORE THAN 1,500 PER ANNUM BY 2040

• Hospital admissions from road crashes have started to increase in the last few years. There were 3,050 serious injuries in 2007.
• As for road deaths, this target is based on New Zealand achieving current world best road safety levels by 2040.  

INCREASE OVERALL MODE SHARE OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT TO SEVEN PERCENT OF ALL TRIPS BY 2040 (IE FROM 111 MILLION BOARDINGS IN 2006/7 TO MORE THAN 525 MILLION BOARDINGS IN 2040)

• Public transport use is estimated to have increased by almost 50 percent since 1999/2000. However, the proportion of trips taken by public transport relative to other forms of transport is low compared with earlier decades. Total boardings for 2006/7 were 111 million. This is 28 boardings per capita a year (about one boarding on public transport per person a fortnight, on average). The 2040 target of seven percent of all trips by public transport equates to 117 boardings per person per year, or, just over two boardings a week per person on average. This target is based on two conditions. Firstly, that the projected growth rate of public transport in Wellington to 2016 continues to 2040, and secondly that Auckland and Canterbury achieve the same per capita level of use as Wellington in 2040. The target is expressed as an average figure - the actual contributions of individual cities and regions will be represented in regional targets, which have yet to be developed.
• This target includes travel by bus, train and ferry, but excludes inter-urban coach travel and dedicated school transport.  

INCREASE WALKING, CYCLING AND OTHER ACTIVE MODES TO 30 PERCENT OF TOTAL TRIPS IN URBAN AREAS BY 2040

• Walking and cycling currently represent around 18 percent of total trips in urban areas. The trend in recent years has been downwards, having reduced from around 26 percent in 1989/90.
• The walking component of the target was partly linked to the expected rise in public transport usage (ie more trips to and from bus stops) and partly informed by walking targets in a number of major urban areas.
• The cycling component was informed by the targets in a selection of urban cycling strategies (eg from Christchurch and Auckland) and projected to 2040.
• This target refers to travel by people aged five and over, and specifically to travel by residents of Main Urban Areas (ie population centres of over 30,000 people or more, as defined by Statistics New Zealand). Further work will be undertaken to develop separate walking and cycling targets.  

REDUCE THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE EXPOSED TO HEALTH-ENDANGERING NOISE LEVELS FROM TRANSPORT

• It has not been possible to set a quantified target, since monitoring of noise is not comprehensive. Further monitoring will be required in the future to set a baseline and from there, to project future targets for improvement.  

REDUCE THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE EXPOSED TO HEALTH-ENDANGERING CONCENTRATIONS OF AIR POLLUTION, IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE IMPACT OF EMISSIONS ARISING FROM TRANSPORT IS SIGNIFICANT

• Vehicle emissions in New Zealand have been estimated to contribute to the premature mortality of 500 people annually.
• It has not been possible to set a quantified target, since monitoring of air quality is not comprehensive. Also, it is difficult to differentiate the proportion of air pollution from transport as compared to other sources of pollution in particular locations. Further monitoring will be required in the future to set a baseline and from there, to project future targets for improvements.

Footnotes:

72. Relative to 2007 per capita emissions. 

     

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• The New Zealand Transport Strategy 2008 (PDF v7.0 4,687KB)