The Ministry of Transport manage a programme that develops transport demand and revenue models to ensure its advice on transport policy and investment has a sound evidence base.
This page contains models developed by the Ministry and relevant supporting documents. New models and associated documents.
These are presented not as policy, but with a view to inform and stimulate wider debate.
The Ministry forecasts revenue from three streams:
- Petrol Excise Duty (PED),
- Road User Charges(RUC),
- Motor Vehicle Registrations (MVR)
Forecasts are run at least twice a year for inclusion in the Treasury’s fiscal updates (external link) .
The Ministry's quarterly revenue snapshots provide an update on the forecast performance versus actual revenue data. In 2013/14, the Ministry commissioned a review of its revenue forecasting model, and adopted a new forecasting model.
- Read “Review and redesign of the NLTF revenue forecasting model” by Deloitte (April 2011) [PDF, 1.1 MB]
- Read “Review of NLTF forecasting model” by Deloitte (October 2012) [PDF, 615 KB]
- Read “Review of the NLTF forecasting model” by Covec (May 2014) [PDF, 2.8 MB]
Revenue forecasts and quarterly snapshots for 2017:
Revenue forecasts and quarterly snapshots for 2016:
- Revenue Monitoring Snapshot 2015-16 [PDF, 421 KB]
- Revenue Monitoring Snapshot - as at 31 December 2016 [PDF, 372 KB]
- Revenue Monitoring Snapshot - as at 30 September 2016 [PDF, 414 KB]
- Revenue Monitoring Snapshot - as at 31 March 2016 [PDF, 441 KB]
Revenue forecasts and quarterly snapshots for 2015:
- Revenue Monitoring Snapshot - as at 31 December 2015 [PDF, 425 KB]
- Revenue Monitoring Snapshot - as at 30 September 2015 [PDF, 334 KB]
- Revenue Monitoring Snapshot - as at 31 March 2015 [PDF, 391 KB]
- BEFU 2015 NLTF revenue forecast [PDF, 580 KB]
- See also the forecast tables [PDF, 970 KB], model accuracy graphs [PDF, 1010 KB] and model accuracy table [PDF, 281 KB]
- Revenue Monitoring Snapshot - as at 14 January 2015 [PDF, 481 KB]
- Revenue Monitoring Snapshot for 2014/15 [PDF, 467 KB]
- OBU 2014 NLTF revenue forecast [PDF, 594 KB]
- See also the forecast tables [PDF, 970 KB], model accuracy graphs [PDF, 1.1 MB] and model accuracy table [PDF, 282 KB]
- Revenue Monitoring Snapshot - as at October 2014 [PDF, 375 KB]
- Revenue Monitoring Snapshot for 2013/14 [PDF, 423 KB]
Freight Demand Forecasting
The National Freight Demand Study models demand for freight out to 2042.
- Read the 2008 National Freight Demand Study [PDF, 5.1 MB]
- Read the 2014 National Freight Demand Study [PDF, 6.9 MB]
The Government Policy Statement on Land Transport
The Ministry engaged the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) to develop forecasts of road vehicle travel for the Government Policy Statement on Land Transport. The NZIER used a model previously developed for the NZ Transport Agency.
- Read the NZTA’s research report (external link)
- Read the forecast demand summary report by NZIER [PDF, 763 KB]
One issue with the NZIER model is that it was premised on the ability of supply to respond to increases in demand without constraints. The Ministry commissioned Concept Consulting to develop conceptually how supply side measures could be incorporated into the model.
- Read the report about incorporating supply side measures into modelling by Concept (August 2014) [PDF, 1.7 MB]
Demand forecasting for air travel is done by a number of different agencies. The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) forecasts numbers of tourists arriving from New Zealand’s 8 major trading partners (see MBIE's tourism forecasts (external link) ).
The Civil Aviation Authority forecasts numbers of departing passengers undergoing security screening.
The Ministry of Transport's forecasts focus on areas not covered by other agencies.
To date, it has forecast international short-term departures by New Zealand residents (that is, not for migration purposes) and total national domestic air passenger departures. The Ministry's models have been subject to an external peer review.
Below are links to spreadsheets of the Ministry's air passenger forecast models, technical notes and a presentation:
- Air passenger departures forecast models - spreadsheets [XLSX, 190 KB]
- Air passenger departures forecast models - technical notes [PDF, 464 KB]
- Presentation about the air passenger departures forecast models [PDF, 642 KB]
The Ministry has commissioned a study on New Zealand international air freight for both exports and imports. This research has analysed demand and available capacity, freight movement patterns and charges, as well as historic trends and future demand.
Although air freight volumes are small in weight terms, they represent 17 percent of New Zealand’s international commodity trade value.
The report highlights that:
- Air freight typically attracts high value products
- In general, there is sufficient capacity to handle the expected air freight demand, although there may be temporary capacity shortages at some airports
- There would be only a modest growth in air freight through to 2030. However, the volume of air freight regularly fluctuates, thus faces an uncertain future.
Demand modelling completed to date was done for the National Freight Demand Study.