Our progress in improving road safety

Over the past 35 years, New Zealand’s road toll has dropped significantly. In 1973, 843 people died on New Zealand’s roads. By 2002, this number had more than halved to 405 deaths. This halving in road deaths has occurred even though the number of vehicle kilometres travelled has more than doubled.

Similarly, since the 1970s the number of road injuries has reduced by over a quarter, declining from 20,791 in 1970 to 15,174 in 2008.

However, since 2003, progress has slowed with road deaths fluctuating between a high of 465 and a low of 358 (see Figure 2). In 2009 there were 385 road deaths. This is higher than the number of deaths in 2008 (365).



Since 2004, the number of serious injuries* has risen by six percent. However, the peak experienced in 2008 of 3,095 serious injuries has recently decreased (see Figure 3).

*as measured by the number of hospitalisations over one day.



Another way to consider our progress is to look at our level of deaths and serious injuries compared with vehicle kilometres travelled. Figure 4 below shows the percentage change in deaths, hospitalisations, population, vehicle kilometres travelled and vehicle numbers since 2001.



Figure 4 shows that vehicle kilometres travelled have grown by 11 percent while at the same time deaths have reduced by 20 percent (however in 2009 deaths rose again) and there has been little change in the number of serious injuries.

How do we compare internationally?

Compared to other OECD countries, New Zealand has a relatively high rate of road deaths per head of population (see Figure 5). Based on 2008 results, we have 8.6 deaths per 100,000 population. This compares with 6.9 deaths per 100,000 population for Australia. Our fatality rate is double that of the safest nations shown (United Kingdom, Sweden and the Netherlands).  If New Zealand had the same road fatality rate as Australia, in 2009 our road toll would have been 298 instead of 385. Had we had the same fatality rate as United Kingdom, our 2009 road toll would have been 186.



New Zealand is a highly motorised country. More of our travel is by car than in many other countries. Even when we take this into account, a comparison between our level of deaths per vehicle kilometres travelled with the other countries in Figure 5 shows our performance is the poorest.

Based on 2008 results, we have a road fatality rate of 9.1 deaths per billion vehicle kilometres. This compares with 6.5 deaths per billion vehicle kilometres for Australia, 7.7 for France and 5.7 for Ireland. The strongest performer, the United Kingdom has 5 deaths per billion vehicle kilometres travelled.

Compared to the United States (the poorest performer in Figure 5) on a vehicle kilometres travelled basis our safety performance is lower. The United States had 8.5 deaths per billion vehicle kilometres travelled in 2007*  while New Zealand had 10.5 deaths in that year.

*The 2007 result is the latest available for the United States.

More information on the level of progress made in New Zealand since 2000 is in the Report on road safety progress since 2000.

What does the future hold?

Several key challenges could affect our ability to make road safety gains in the future. These are:

Demographic

Population growth and increasing demand for transport – the total number of kilometres travelled by vehicles is predicted to increase by more than 40 percent by 2040. These changes will place more stress on the transport system, particularly in Auckland where most of the population increase is expected to happen. This could impact on the safety of pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists as the competition for road and roadside space intensifies.

Changes in ethnic make-up of the population – New Zealand’s population will continue to become more diverse. We may need to tailor education and information so it is relevant for all of New Zealand’s communities.

An ageing population – the number of New Zealanders aged 65 years and older is expected to increase by approximately 52 percent by 2020. As older road users are more physically vulnerable to injury, we expect to see some increase in the number of deaths and serious injuries.

Economic

A rapidly growing amount of freight – freight is predicted to double by 2040 and the largest share of it is likely to continue to be transported by road. Improving freight productivity will be important to reduce the impact of more trucks on the road. Crashes involving trucks are usually more serious than those involving lighter vehicles because of their greater size and weight.

Growing international demand for oil – it is predicted that demand for liquid fuels will grow by 32 percent by 2030*. If fuel prices rise then the way people choose to travel may also change. This could have positive and negative impacts for road safety.

*US Energy Information Administration. 2009. International Energy Outlook. UK Govt Printer, Washington.

The continuing impact of the global economic recession – this could have several impacts. It could mean there is less movement of people and freight, which would reduce exposure to road safety risk. It could also mean there is less public money available for road safety, and people may defer vehicle maintenance or keep their older (and generally less safe) cars for longer.

Environmental

Addressing climate change commitments – over the next decade it is anticipated that measures will be taken to reduce transport emissions. This is likely to influence people’s choice of transport. We may see an increase in public transport, motorcycling, walking and cycling. It will be important to address the safety needs of all modes of transport.
Technological

New technology – this could affect the way we deliver road safety messages. For example, we could make greater use of the internet and mobile phones to deliver road safety messages to the widest possible audience. New technology will also lead to improvements in enforcement and in vehicle safety.

Social

New illegal drugs that affect safe road use – organised production and use of methamphetamine is a relatively recent phenomenon in New Zealand. This illustrates how difficult it can be to predict what new challenges may arise for road safety as new drugs emerge. The ability to test for these drugs, monitor their impact and enforce against their use will be an area for ongoing research and policy development.

Motorcycles

Increase in motorcycling – the recent rise in popularity of motorcycle and moped use is likely to continue. Without a focus on the safety of motorcyclists, this could mean motorcycle injuries continue to increase.

What can we expect if we continue as we are?

Progress in reducing road deaths and serious injuries has slowed in recent years, and this shows we need a new approach to road safety. If we continue with our current approach, and rely on our existing set of road safety initiatives, it is estimated*  that in 2020 around 400 people will still lose their lives, over 3,000 people will be seriously injured and around 13,000 will suffer minor injuries.

*These predictions incorporate expected growth in traffic (VKT) as the primary variable. There are many other potential variables that could affect this estimate but these have not been included because of the high degree of uncertainty surrounding their possible impacts.

This is about the same level of death and injury as now which means our progress will continue to slow. The safety improvements we get from our current road safety effort will continue to be largely offset by the increased road use that comes with population increases and economic growth.

Road crashes place a substantial, but preventable, burden on the economy and the health sector. The current social cost of road injuries is approximately $3.8 billion per annum. Social cost includes the cost of the loss of life and life quality, loss of output due to temporary incapacitation, medical costs, legal costs and property damage costs.

Road crashes also impose other costs that are difficult to directly quantify. Road crashes have a negative impact on elective and non-emergency surgery waiting lists, and on the productivity of the workforce.

Annual social cost estimates cannot accurately reflect the ongoing cost that road injuries place on the community. A young person paralysed as a result of a road crash may need support from the community for the rest of their life. The ongoing nature of the cost of road crashes partly explains why they account for almost 30 percent of ACC’s outstanding (ie future) claims liability.

An ageing population and the challenges this presents to maintaining a skilled workforce, means that the impact of road crashes on the health sector and the economy could be even more difficult to manage.

Our current approach will be enough to maintain existing safety levels, but it will not generate future improvements. We know that combining enforcement and advertising in road safety campaigns has resulted in strong benefits, but this approach faces declining returns. The OECD has commented that New Zealand’s rate of social cost reduction for each additional dollar investment in enforcement and advertising programmes has decreased from around 9:1 to 4:1 over the course of the last decade*.

*OECD. Towards zero: Ambitious Road Safety Targets and the Safe System Approach. pg 107. OECD Publishing, Paris.

We need a new approach to road safety that delivers a substantial and sustained reduction in injury, while at the same time supporting New Zealand’s economic and environmental goals. This is why Safer Journeys introduces a Safe System approach.

The benefits from investing in improving road safety are real and substantial. The main benefits are:

• fewer people killed or injured
• less drain on the productivity of the workforce
• less pressure on the health sector including the waiting lists for elective and non-elective surgery
• lower ACC costs
• improvements in the quality of life for New Zealanders.

Download the Safer Journeys Strategy here (PDF v7.0, 2,332kb)