Note: More recent international air passenger departures projections were done in conjunction with the Transport Outlook.
Demand forecasting for air travel is done by a number of different agencies. The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) forecasts numbers of tourists arriving from New Zealand’s 8 major trading partners (see MBIE's tourism forecasts(external link)).
The Civil Aviation Authority forecasts numbers of departing passengers undergoing security screening.
The Ministry of Transport's forecasts focus on areas not covered by other agencies.
To date, it has forecast international short-term departures by New Zealand residents (that is, not for migration purposes) and total national domestic air passenger departures. The Ministry's models have been subject to an external peer review.
Below are links to spreadsheets of the Ministry's air passenger forecast models, technical notes and a presentation: