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Updated versions of the Health Outcomes of Active Transport and the Vehicle Fleet Emissions Model (VFEM) have been added to this page for the first time. Also, the VKT/Vehicle Numbers model files have been replaced with newer versions to reflect revised estimates of 2017 vehicle kilometres travelled (VKTs).
Due to the impacts of congestion pricing in the Close scenario, this revision also had small impacts on the Population and GDP Assumptions file and the Household Travel Model for that scenario only. Those two files have also been replaced with newer versions.
The links on this page provide access to updated versions of the Excel workbooks for some of the models that contributed to the tables or figures in the Transport Outlook: Future State report, as published in November 2017. The updates generally reflect:
Typically, there is a documentation file describing the model and a model file for each of the Base Case and four alternative scenarios.
At this time, not every Transport Outlook: Future State model has been updated. Additional models will be updated, and further updates may be made to models previously updated, as required by projects at the Ministry of Transport or other government agencies. Please watch this space.
There is also not yet a complete modelling package available for download, as there is for the original models.
This documents the Household Travel Model SAS programmes that generate inputs to the Excel-based Household Travel Model Post-Processor
This documents the Excel-based Household Travel Model, available below.
This one worksheet encompasses all cases.
Projecting road vehicle fleet/fuel/emissions
Intl departures (OD-based) projection model-Include 4airports-20170508 [XLSX, 345 KB] (includes all five scenarios)
Regional air travel forecasting model 20170508_Basecase&ScenarioA [XLSX, 7.8 MB] (results apply to both the Base Case and Staying Close to the Action scenario)
Regional air travel forecasting model 20170508_ScenarioB [XLSX, 7.8 MB] (results apply to the Metro-Connected scenario)
Regional air travel forecasting model 20170508_ScenarioC [XLSX, 7.8 MB] (results apply to the Golden Triangle scenario)
Regional air travel forecasting model 20170508_ScenarioD [XLSX, 7.8 MB] (results apply to the @Home in Town and Country scenario)
Leg-based departure projection model_Include 4airports_20170508 [XLSX, 507 KB] (includes all five scenarios)
Domestic Aviation AKM-GHG projection model for transport outlook-20170622 [XLSX, 810 KB] (includes all five scenarios)