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Future state model results

Changes as of 7 Aug 2019

Updated versions of the Health Outcomes of Active Transport and the Vehicle Fleet Emissions Model (VFEM) have been added to this page for the first time. Also, the VKT/Vehicle Numbers model files have been replaced with newer versions to reflect revised estimates of 2017 vehicle kilometres travelled (VKTs).

Due to the impacts of congestion pricing in the Close scenario, this revision also had small impacts on the Population and GDP Assumptions file and the Household Travel Model for that scenario only. Those two files have also been replaced with newer versions.  

In this update

The links on this page provide access to updated versions of the Excel workbooks for some of the models that contributed to the tables or figures in the Transport Outlook: Future State report, as published in November 2017. The updates generally reflect:

  • a shift of the base year (last year of historical data) from 2014/15 to 2017/18;
  • an extension of the model projections from 2042/43 to 2057/58;
  • updated population projections from Stats NZ;
  • updated GDP projections from The Treasury;
  • updated tourism projections from MBIE;
  • updated public transport patronage projections from Auckland Transport and the Wellington Regional Council.

Typically, there is a documentation file describing the model and a model file for each of the Base Case and four alternative scenarios.

At this time, not every Transport Outlook: Future State model has been updated. Additional models will be updated, and further updates may be made to models previously updated, as required by projects at the Ministry of Transport or other government agencies. Please watch this space.

There is also not yet a complete modelling package available for download, as there is for the original models. 

Health outcomes of active transport model

Freight model

Vehicle fleet emissions model

Projecting road vehicle fleet/fuel/emissions

OD-based international air passenger model

OD-based domestic air passenger model

Leg-based air passenger departures model

Aircraft km travelled/fuel use/emissions model