The links on this page provide access to updated versions of the Excel workbooks for some of the models that contributed to the tables or figures in the Transport Outlook: Future State report, as published in November 2017. The updates generally reflect:

  • a shift of the base year (last year of historical data) from 2014/15 to 2017/18;
  • an extension of the model projections from 2042/43 to 2057/58;
  • updated population projections from Stats NZ;
  • updated GDP projections from The Treasury;
  • updated tourism projections from MBIE;
  • updated public transport patronage projections from Auckland Transport and the Wellington Regional Council.

Typically, there is a documentation file describing the model and a model file for each of the Base Case and four alternative scenarios.

At this time, not every Transport Outlook: Future State model has been updated. Additional models will be updated, and further updates may be made to models previously updated, as required by projects at the Ministry of Transport or other government agencies. Please watch this space. There is also not yet a complete modelling package available for download, as there is for the original models.  

The individual Excel workbooks available here are designed to work as a system with numerous links between them and, in some cases, to additional files not available here. Except for the Vehicle Fleet Emissions Model, the links are contained in the individual workbooks available here, but will need to be configured on the user’s computer if the user wishes them to work as a system. Users who just wish to view the model results do not need to do anything. It is normal when opening any of the files here to obtain a message saying “This workbook contains links to one or more external sources that could be unsafe.” Users who just wish to view the model results may click “Don’t Update”.  

Experienced Excel users who wish to change the assumptions in one model, such as Population and GDP Assumptions, and see the effect in another model, such as the Household Travel Model, will need to ensure that the two models are properly linked on their computer. This may be accomplished by clicking the Data->Edit Links button in Excel for the downstream model (such as Household Travel), and changing the source for each of the upstream models (such as Population and GDP Assumptions) to the copy on the user’s computer.

Changes as of 7 Aug 2019: Updated versions of the Health Outcomes of Active Transport and the Vehicle Fleet Emissions Model (VFEM) have been added to this page for the first time. Also, the VKT/Vehicle Numbers model files have been replaced with newer versions to reflect revised estimates of 2017 vehicle kilometres travelled (VKTs). Due to the impacts of congestion pricing in the Close scenario, this revision also had small impacts on the Population and GDP Assumptions file and the Household Travel Model for that scenario only. Those two files have also been replaced with newer versions.  

For questions about these models, please contact transportoutlook@transport.govt.nz.

 

Population and GDP Assumptions

Documentation File:

Population and GDP Assumptions Version 2 Documentation 20190401 [PDF, 126 KB]

Model Files:

Population and GDP updated Version 2 base [XLSX, 84 KB]

Population and GDP updated Verson 2 close 20190703 [XLSX, 86 KB]

Population and GDP updated Version 2 metro [XLSX, 94 KB]

Population and GDP updated Version 2 golden [XLSX, 92 KB]

Population and GDP updated Version 2 at home [XLSX, 88 KB]

 

Household Travel Model

Documentation File:

Household Travel Model SAS Version 2 Documentation 20171127 [PDF, 224 KB] (this documents the Household Travel Model SAS programmes that generate inputs to the Excel-based Household Travel Model Post-Processor)

Household Travel Model Postprocessor Version 2 Documentation 20190401 [PDF, 143 KB] (this documents the Excel-based Household Travel Model, available below)

Model Files:

trip_summary_region_postprocess Version 2 base 20181206 [XLSX, 952 KB]

trip_summary_region_postprocess Version 2 close 20190703 [XLSX, 954 KB]

trip_summary_region_postprocess Version 2 metro 20181217 [XLSX, 956 KB]

trip_summary_region_postprocess Version 2 golden 20181218 [XLSX, 955 KB]

trip_summary_region_postprocess at Version 2 home 20181219  [XLSX, 956 KB]

 

Health Outcomes of Active Transport Model

Documentation Files:

Health Outcomes of Active Transport Model Documentation 20190708 [PDF, 569 KB](external link)

Keall, et al Health Outcomes from Transport Documentation 201608 [PDF, 915 KB](external link)

Model Files (this one worksheet encompasses all cases):

Health model Version 2 20190708 [XLSX, 945 KB]

 

VKT/Vehicle Numbers Model

Documentation File:

VKT-Vehicle Numbers Model Version 2 Documentation 20190416 [PDF, 193 KB]

Model Files:

VKT and Vehicle Numbers Model Version 2 base 20190702 [XLSX, 623 KB]

VKT and Vehicle Numbers Model Version 2 close 20190703 [XLSX, 625 KB]

VKT and Vehicle Numbers Model Version 2 metro 20190703 [XLSX, 626 KB]

VKT and Vehicle Numbers Model Version 2 golden 20190703 [XLSX, 626 KB]

VKT and Vehicle Numbers Model Version 2 at home 20190703 [XLSX, 627 KB]

 

Freight Model

Documentation File:

Freight Model Version 2 Documentation 20190423 [PDF, 612 KB]

Model Files:

Freight model Version 2 base 20181206 [XLSM, 5.9 MB]

Freight model Version 2 close 20190402 [XLSM, 5.9 MB]

Freight model Version 2 metro 20181217 [XLSM, 5.9 MB]

Freight model Version 2 golden 20181218 [XLSM, 5.9 MB]

Freight model Version 2 at home 20181219 [XLSM, 5.9 MB]

 

Road Freight Tonne-KM by Region Model

Documentation File:

Road Freight TonneKM Model Version 2 Documentation 20190423 [PDF, 115 KB]

Model Files:

Road Freight TonneKM by Region base 20181129 [XLSX, 468 KB]

Road Freight TonneKM by Region close 20190402 [XLSX, 468 KB]

Road Freight TonneKM by Region metro 20181217 [XLSX, 468 KB]

Road Freight TonneKM by Region golden 20181218 [XLSX, 469 KB]

Road Freight TonneKM by Region at home 20181219 [XLSX, 469 KB]

 

Rail Freight Tonne-KM by Region Model

Documentation File:

Rail Freight TonneKM Model Version 2 Documentation 20190423 [PDF, 140 KB]

Model Files:

Rail Freight TonneKM by Region base 20190325 [XLSX, 463 KB]

Rail Freight Tonne KM by Region close 20190402 [XLSX, 466 KB]

Rail Freight TonneKM by Region metro 20190325 [XLSX, 466 KB]

Rail Freight TonneKM by Region golden 20190325 [XLSX, 466 KB]

Rail Freight TonneKM by Region home 20190325 [XLSX, 466 KB]

 

Coastal Shipping Tonne-KM

Documentation File:

Coastal Shipping TonneKM Model Version 2 Documentaion 20190423 [PDF, 110 KB]

Model Files:

Coastal Shipping TonneKM by base 20190328 [XLSX, 95 KB]

Coastal Shipping TonneKM by close 20190402 [XLSX, 96 KB]

Coastal Shipping TonneKM by metro 20190328 [XLSX, 95 KB]

Coastal Shipping TonneKM by golden 20190328 [XLSX, 95 KB]

Coastal Shipping Tonne KM by home 20190328 [XLSX, 95 KB]

 

Vehicle Fleet Emissions Model (projecting road vehicle fleet/fuel/emissions)

Documentation File:

Vehicle Fleet Emissions Model Documentation 20190719.docx [PDF, 252 KB]

Emission Impossible Real World Energy Use Projections for VFEM 20160905 [PDF, 1.6 MB](external link)

Model Files:

VFEM3 run190703_Adj_ghg&fuel_CY_web2.xlsx [XLSX, 2.6 MB]

Vehicle feedin VFEM3_v4.xlsx [XLSX, 1.1 MB]